Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Peace in the Caucasus?

Russia and Georgia agreed to end the hostilities and return to the conference table. But don't be fooled - peace is far away, if not impossible, in the current situation.
Russia wants to maintain control in the region, and will not sit back and accept independence for the two breakaway Georgian provinces.
Georgia on the other hand will continue to fight for South Ossetia, that it considers part of Georgia.
Obviously the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili took a big gamble with his military offensive against South Ossetia, which began last Thursday evening. He must have believed that Europe and especially the USA, who have been a big supporter of the Georgian independence movement, will come to the rescue, and support Georgia in it's fight against the Russian army. But the West's solidarity has so far been limited to words. Now a negotiator, who has the trust of both sides, is necessary to develop an agreement that is acceptable to Russia and Georgia.

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